The UFC lightweight division is entering a new era with Ilia Topuria crowned as its latest champion, but the identity of his first challenger remains shrouded in uncertainty. For many fans and analysts, the logical choice seems to be Arman Tsarukyan, currently ranked No. 2 in the division and widely regarded as one of the most dangerous contenders. Yet, Tsarukyan himself is not optimistic about getting the call. Instead, he believes the UFC will lean toward a more controversial – and marketable – option: Paddy Pimblett.

Tsarukyan’s Missed Opportunity

Tsarukyan’s claim to a title shot stems from a series of circumstances that began earlier this year. At UFC 311 in January, he was scheduled to face then-champion Islam Makhachev for the lightweight belt. Unfortunately, a back injury forced him to withdraw, opening the door for Renato Moicano to step in as a late replacement. Makhachev successfully defended his title before making the shocking decision to vacate the lightweight strap and move up to welterweight in pursuit of greater challenges.

This left the belt vacant, and Ilia Topuria seized the opportunity, defeating former champion Charles Oliveira by knockout to capture UFC gold. While the victory catapulted Topuria into superstardom, it also left fighters like Tsarukyan and Justin Gaethje waiting in the wings.

Why Tsarukyan Expects to Be Overlooked

In an interview with Sport24, Tsarukyan expressed skepticism about his chances of being selected as Topuria’s first challenger. His reasoning? The UFC’s business model often prioritizes high-profile, entertaining fights that generate fan interest, and that could mean the organization favors Pimblett over him or Gaethje.

“No, Gaethje will not fight Topuria,” Tsarukyan said. “UFC can do anything, even match Topuria with a newcomer. But I think the highest probability is Pimblett. He’s famous and already has bad blood with Topuria.”

That bad blood dates back to UFC 317, where Pimblett confronted Topuria inside the octagon after his fight. The two exchanged heated words, further fueling speculation that their clash could become one of the UFC’s next major grudge matches.

The Case for Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett may not have the résumé of Tsarukyan or Gaethje, but what he lacks in proven elite-level victories, he makes up for in marketability. The English star is undefeated in seven UFC bouts and boasts a loyal fan base that has made him one of the most talked-about fighters in the promotion.

From a promotional standpoint, pairing Pimblett with Topuria makes sense. The storyline of their personal rivalry, combined with Pimblett’s popularity, could draw major attention and pay-per-view buys. Still, many purists argue that Pimblett’s body of work does not yet justify a title shot, especially when fighters like Tsarukyan have been consistently proving themselves against top-tier competition.

Why Topuria Might Avoid Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan also suggested that Topuria may have strategic reasons for avoiding him. Instead of risking an immediate defense against a dangerous, well-rounded contender, Topuria could bide his time until bigger opportunities arise.

“He will not want to fight me,” Tsarukyan claimed. “Because he can make more money fighting Islam (Makhachev) and has the chance to become the first three-division champion in UFC history. Even if he loses to Islam, he can use the excuse of moving up two weight classes and then come back to lightweight.”

In other words, Tsarukyan believes Topuria is looking beyond immediate divisional defenses toward long-term legacy fights. With the lure of history and the possibility of facing Makhachev again in a higher weight class, a title defense against him may not be high on the champion’s priority list.

Tsarukyan’s Staying Active

Despite the uncertainty, Tsarukyan is keeping himself busy. The 1996-born fighter has continued competing in grappling bouts to stay sharp and showcase his skills. Recently, he defeated Patricky Pitbull by submission and even forced former UFC champion Benson Henderson to tap out in another impressive display of his ground game.

These victories not only keep Tsarukyan relevant but also strengthen his claim as one of the most deserving lightweight contenders. His ability to mix elite wrestling with dangerous striking makes him a nightmare matchup for anyone in the division – including Topuria.

The Bigger Picture for the Lightweight Division

The UFC lightweight division has long been one of the most stacked in the sport, and the uncertainty surrounding Topuria’s first defense only adds intrigue. On one side, there are purists like Tsarukyan and Gaethje who have earned their shots through years of grinding against top opposition. On the other side, there are showmen like Pimblett who, while unproven at the elite level, bring undeniable star power.

The UFC has often struck a balance between merit and entertainment value, and this situation is no different. Whether the promotion leans toward the proven contender or the marketable star will reveal much about its priorities in the post-Makhachev lightweight era.

Conclusion

Arman Tsarukyan has every reason to believe he deserves a shot at Ilia Topuria’s lightweight title, but he remains realistic about how the UFC operates. With Paddy Pimblett’s growing stardom and history of conflict with the new champion, Tsarukyan fears the Armenian-Russian contender and even veterans like Justin Gaethje may be overlooked in favor of a more marketable fight.

While Topuria’s next move is still unknown, one thing is certain: Tsarukyan will continue building his case, whether through grappling dominance or future lightweight showdowns. And when the opportunity finally comes, he’ll be ready to prove why he is the most dangerous challenger in the division.