The UFC heavyweight division is once again at the center of attention as UFC 321 approaches. Headlined by heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall defending his belt against Ciryl Gane, the card also features another pivotal showdown: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida.

This clash is more than just another fight. For many, it’s the unofficial title eliminator — the winner likely earns a shot at the UFC heavyweight championship. And while both fighters bring intrigue to the cage, Tom Aspinall himself has already weighed in with a strong opinion: he believes Volkov has the edge over Almeida.

But why does the reigning champ prefer Volkov? What does this prediction mean for the title picture? And how could UFC 321 reshape the heavyweight landscape? Let’s break it all down.

Tom Aspinall’s Bold Prediction

Tom Aspinall isn’t one to mince words. In the lead-up to UFC 321, he openly shared his thoughts on the Volkov vs. Almeida bout, making it clear that he expects Volkov to come out on top.

“I think Volkov beats Almeida,” Aspinall noted in a recent interview, emphasizing that the Russian’s experience and current form give him a strong advantage. He acknowledged Almeida’s talent but described him as “untested” against the true elite of the division.

For a reigning champion to make such a prediction isn’t just casual talk. It’s both a sign of respect for Volkov and a subtle dismissal of Almeida’s readiness. Aspinall knows that whoever wins may very well become his next challenger, so his comments carry weight.

Why Alexander Volkov Has the Edge

A Veteran with Proven Skills

Alexander Volkov has been a staple of the UFC heavyweight division for years. With over 40 professional fights, his experience dwarfs Almeida’s. He’s seen every style — from wrestlers to strikers — and knows how to adapt in the Octagon.

Recent Form

Volkov enters UFC 321 on a strong run of form, winning four of his last five bouts. He has displayed improved finishing ability, composure under pressure, and refined striking that makes him a constant threat.

Physical Attributes

Standing at 6’7” with an 80-inch reach, Volkov brings massive physical advantages. His ability to control distance with jabs and teep kicks frustrates opponents who rely on closing the distance. Against Almeida — a grappler who thrives in close quarters — this could be decisive.

Lessons from Defeat

Importantly, Volkov has grown since his loss to Aspinall in 2022. Rather than fading after that setback, he rebuilt himself with sharper game planning and improved ground defense. Aspinall’s confidence in Volkov isn’t blind; it’s based on a veteran who continues to evolve.

Jailton Almeida – Dangerous but Unproven

While Aspinall favors Volkov, dismissing Jailton Almeida entirely would be a mistake. The Brazilian has been on a meteoric rise in the heavyweight division, largely thanks to his suffocating grappling style.

A Grappling Powerhouse

Nicknamed “Malhadinho,” Almeida has made a name for himself by dominating opponents on the ground. His takedowns, control, and relentless pace have overwhelmed many of his adversaries. If he can drag Volkov down, the fight changes drastically.

The Question Marks

However, Almeida has yet to prove himself against the very top of the division. His resume, while impressive, lacks victories over top-5 opponents. This leaves lingering doubts: How will he handle a seasoned veteran like Volkov? Can his grappling overcome someone with Volkov’s size and experience?

Pressure of the Moment

Another challenge is the mental game. A fight with this much at stake — potentially a title shot — can weigh heavily on a fighter. For a rising contender like Almeida, the pressure may either fuel him to greatness or expose cracks in his armor.

The History Between Aspinall and Volkov

Part of what makes this storyline so compelling is the history between Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. The two fought in March 2022, with Aspinall securing a first-round submission victory.

For Aspinall, it was a defining moment — a win that catapulted him into title contention. For Volkov, it was a painful lesson that has since fueled his resurgence.

A potential rematch would carry high stakes. Aspinall would aim to prove his dominance once again, while Volkov would seek redemption and the ultimate prize: the UFC heavyweight championship. The narrative practically writes itself.

How UFC 321 Shapes the Heavyweight Division

Volkov Wins

If Volkov defeats Almeida, the path to a title shot is almost guaranteed. A rematch with Aspinall would be a major draw for fans, especially given their history. It would also test whether Volkov has truly leveled up since their first encounter.

Almeida Wins

Should Almeida pull off the upset, it would mark the arrival of a new heavyweight contender. A title fight between Aspinall and Almeida would be fresh, unpredictable, and stylistically intriguing — a striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level.

Broader Implications

Beyond individual matchups, UFC 321 will set the tone for the division’s future. With veterans like Stipe Miocic nearing the end of their careers and new stars emerging, the heavyweight picture is entering a transitional era. The outcomes in October could define the next two years of heavyweight competition.

Beyond the Cage – Aspinall’s Strategy and Psychology

Aspinall’s comments about Volkov may also be part of a psychological strategy. By backing Volkov, he not only shows respect but also subtly frames Almeida as unworthy or unready.

This could affect Almeida mentally, planting seeds of doubt. At the same time, it sends a message to Volkov: “I see you as a worthy rival.” It’s a clever balance — praising one potential opponent while undermining the other.

For Aspinall, who has rapidly risen to the top, controlling the narrative outside the cage is almost as important as dominating inside it.

Conclusion – A Heavyweight Storyline in the Making

UFC 321 is shaping up to be one of the most important heavyweight cards in recent memory. Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane headlines the event, but the co-main between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida could steal the show.

Aspinall’s belief in Volkov highlights the Russian’s experience and resurgence, but it also underscores the question marks surrounding Almeida. For fans, the intrigue lies in the uncertainty — Volkov has the edge on paper, but MMA is never predictable.

Whether it leads to a blockbuster rematch or the rise of a new contender, one thing is clear: the outcome of Volkov vs. Almeida will reshape the heavyweight landscape. And with Aspinall at the center, the UFC heavyweight division is entering a thrilling new chapter.