Sébastien Ogier Returns to the Scene of His 2025 Triumph

Sébastien Ogier has returned to Rally Chile with one clear objective: repeat the victory that made last year’s event one of the most memorable stops of his recent WRC campaign.

But this time, the nine-time world champion is walking into a very different situation.

Toyota Gazoo Racing enters Rally Chile with enormous expectations, a championship battle that is becoming increasingly intense and several of its own drivers fighting for reasons that go far beyond simply finishing ahead of the Hyundai opposition.

And just before the real competition began, Takamoto Katsuta delivered the kind of warning that could immediately change the atmosphere inside Toyota.

Katsuta dominated Thursday’s shakedown, setting the fastest time in 4 minutes 16.2 seconds and finishing 2.4 seconds clear of Hyundai’s Adrien Fourmaux. The performance was particularly notable because Katsuta is entering the Chilean rally with a new co-driver, James Fulton, after Aaron Johnston was ruled out following the high-speed crash in Paraguay.

Ogier, meanwhile, finished sixth in the shakedown, just 2.9 seconds away from Katsuta’s benchmark.

On paper, that may look like a minor difference.

Inside Toyota, however, it creates a much more interesting storyline.

The defending Chile winner has arrived expecting to fight for another victory, but Katsuta has already shown that he is not prepared to simply play the role of supporting driver.

Katsuta Sends the First Warning Before the Rally Has Even Started

The shakedown does not count toward the rally classification, and nobody at Toyota will pretend that a 5.76-kilometre test determines what happens over an entire WRC weekend.

But performance at this stage can still send a message.

Katsuta’s message was impossible to ignore.

The Japanese driver immediately established the fastest benchmark, while Ogier was only sixth and championship leader Elfyn Evans ended the session in tenth.

More importantly, Katsuta managed to produce the performance despite entering the event with a new co-driver partnership.

James Fulton has stepped into the seat alongside Katsuta after Johnston’s injury. Toyota confirmed that Johnston suffered a collarbone fracture following further examinations after the Paraguay accident and would miss Rally Chile while continuing his recovery.

That makes Katsuta’s shakedown performance even more intriguing.

A new co-driver normally requires time to establish rhythm, communication and confidence.

Instead, Katsuta immediately looked comfortable.

He also made it clear that the real challenge would be managing the conditions.

The weather is expected to play a major role in Chile, with overnight rain potentially changing the character of the stages dramatically.

Katsuta himself emphasized the importance of tyre management, rhythm and staying clean, suggesting that raw speed alone may not be enough to survive the weekend.

That warning matters because Rally Chile has never been a simple contest of who can push hardest.

The roads can be fast, technical and unpredictable, with different combinations of smooth and abrasive gravel creating difficult decisions for the crews.

One wrong tyre choice can transform a strong rally into a disaster.

Ogier Has the Experience, but Experience Alone May Not Be Enough

Ogier has something Katsuta cannot manufacture overnight.

Experience.

The Frenchman is a nine-time world champion, a driver who has spent years winning rallies under conditions that would overwhelm less experienced competitors.

He also knows exactly what it takes to win in Chile.

Ogier claimed the 2025 Rally Chile victory, and Toyota is expecting him to fight for another strong result this weekend.

Toyota’s own preview identified the Chile event as an opportunity for Ogier to repeat his previous success, while also noting that he entered the rally 68 points behind championship leader Elfyn Evans.

That creates an unusual situation.

Ogier is not entering Chile as the championship favorite.

He is entering as the experienced hunter.

Evans has the championship lead.

Sami Pajari is only 20 points behind after winning three consecutive rallies.

Oliver Solberg sits third.

Katsuta is fourth.

Ogier is sixth.

Suddenly, Toyota has multiple drivers with very different objectives fighting inside the same organization.

And that could become one of the defining stories of the weekend.

The Bigger Toyota Battle Is Not Simply Ogier vs Katsuta

It would be easy to frame this as a direct Ogier versus Katsuta confrontation.

The reality is much bigger.

Toyota enters Chile with Evans, Pajari, Solberg, Katsuta and Ogier all capable of influencing the championship picture.

That creates an unusually complicated internal dynamic.

Evans wants to protect his championship lead.

Pajari wants to continue the momentum that has transformed him into a genuine title threat.

Solberg wants to recover from a difficult Rally Paraguay and prove that his recent struggles were not representative of his true pace.

Katsuta wants to convert speed into another major result.

Ogier wants to prove that his experience and ability to manage difficult rallies still make him one of the most dangerous drivers in the field.

The numbers show just how tight the situation has become.

After Rally Paraguay, Evans led the championship with 216 points, followed by Pajari on 196, Solberg on 175, Katsuta on 160 and Ogier on 148. Toyota also held a commanding manufacturers’ championship advantage over Hyundai.

That means Toyota has strength in numbers.

But strength in numbers can also create pressure.

When five drivers are capable of fighting near the front, every mistake by one Toyota driver can directly benefit another Toyota driver.

And every strong result can potentially change the internal championship hierarchy.

Pajari Has Quietly Become One of the Biggest Threats

While Ogier and Katsuta dominate the immediate headlines, Sami Pajari may be the driver Toyota should be watching most carefully.

The Finn has won the last three rallies and has transformed a previously comfortable Evans championship lead into a genuine title fight.

He arrived in Chile just 20 points behind Evans.

That is a completely different championship situation from the one Toyota faced only a few rounds ago.

Pajari also showed strong pace in the Chile shakedown, finishing among the leading drivers.

That matters because he is no longer simply fighting for podiums.

He is now fighting with a realistic championship objective.

If Evans struggles to open the road and Pajari takes advantage, the championship could tighten even further.

Evans himself acknowledged the difficult road-cleaning situation in Chile, describing the loose gravel as a major concern and hoping overnight rain would reduce the disadvantage of opening the road.

That could create an opening for Pajari.

And if Pajari converts it into another major result, the pressure on Evans will increase.

Evans Has the Championship Lead — and the Worst Starting Position

Elfyn Evans enters Rally Chile as the championship leader.

But leading the championship comes with a painful disadvantage this weekend.

He will open the road.

That means Evans is expected to encounter the loose gravel first, potentially leaving a cleaner and faster racing line for the drivers behind him.

In a rally where road conditions can change quickly, that is a serious disadvantage.

Evans finished tenth in the shakedown, 10.2 seconds behind Katsuta according to the official WRC report.

However, the shakedown result itself is not necessarily the concern.

The bigger issue is what happens when the championship leader becomes the first car onto the rally stages.

If the roads remain dry, Evans could be forced to sacrifice valuable seconds simply by doing the job that comes with leading the championship.

If rain arrives, the equation changes again.

Suddenly, tyre choice, grip and timing become more important.

That is precisely why Toyota cannot afford to treat the Chile rally as a straightforward race.

Ogier Knows Exactly What Is at Stake

For Ogier, this rally has an additional layer.

He is approaching a significant WRC milestone.

When Rally Chile begins, Ogier will equal Jari-Matti Latvala’s record of 213 WRC starts.

That achievement adds another chapter to a career already filled with records, championships and victories.

But Ogier is not returning simply to celebrate a milestone.

He wants another win.

His own comments before the rally reflected a cautious approach.

Thursday’s dry shakedown conditions were not necessarily representative of what the crews would face once the rain arrived.

Ogier acknowledged that the changing weather could make the opening stage particularly difficult and emphasized the importance of driving cleanly and producing a smooth weekend.

That statement may sound conservative.

In reality, it could reveal Ogier’s biggest advantage.

While younger drivers may be tempted to attack immediately, Ogier understands that Chile can punish overconfidence.

A driver who survives the difficult sections without unnecessary mistakes can suddenly find himself fighting for victory when others begin losing time.

The Hyundai Threat Makes Toyota’s Internal Battle Even More Dangerous

Toyota cannot afford to become distracted by its own internal championship battle.

Hyundai is waiting.

Adrien Fourmaux finished second in the shakedown, only 2.4 seconds behind Katsuta.

Esapekka Lappi was also competitive, while Thierry Neuville finished fifth.

The Hyundai cars are therefore close enough to exploit any Toyota weakness.

If Ogier, Katsuta, Evans and Pajari spend the weekend fighting each other for position, Hyundai could potentially benefit.

That is why Katsuta’s warning is more important than a simple shakedown result.

He has shown that Toyota has another car capable of fighting near the front.

And if Katsuta maintains that pace when the competitive stages begin, the Japanese driver could become a major factor in both the rally result and the championship battle.

Katsuta Has Something to Prove After Paraguay

There is also an emotional dimension to Katsuta’s weekend.

His Rally Paraguay ended in a violent accident that forced the cancellation of the penultimate stage.

Katsuta and Johnston were taken for precautionary medical checks after their GR Yaris Rally1 rolled during the high-speed incident. Both were able to walk away, but Johnston was later diagnosed with a collarbone fracture.

Returning from an accident of that magnitude and immediately setting the fastest shakedown time is significant.

It does not guarantee anything for the rally.

But it shows that Katsuta has not arrived in Chile simply hoping to finish.

He has arrived ready to fight.

And his new partnership with Fulton could become one of the most fascinating elements of the weekend.

If they continue to build confidence quickly, Katsuta could find himself challenging drivers with much more established pairings.

Why the First Competitive Stage Could Change Everything

The rally proper begins with the Turquía stage, a 22.94-kilometre test forming part of a heavily revised opening leg.

Friday features six stages and approximately 100 kilometres of competition.

That immediately puts pressure on every crew.

There is little room for a slow start.

There is also little room for mistakes.

The weather could make the opening day even more unpredictable, particularly after the dry shakedown conditions.

That means the driver who looked fastest Thursday may not necessarily be the driver leading Friday afternoon.

This is where Ogier’s experience becomes dangerous.

It is also where Katsuta’s confidence could become a weapon.

And it is where Pajari could once again turn championship pressure into opportunity.

Toyota Has the Fastest Cars — But Can It Control the Battle?

Toyota has dominated the manufacturers’ championship for much of the season.

After Round 11, Toyota led Hyundai by a substantial margin.

The GR Yaris Rally1 has repeatedly demonstrated strong pace across different surfaces and rally formats.

But the Chile weekend presents a different kind of challenge.

Toyota must manage five high-profile drivers with different objectives.

The team cannot afford unnecessary internal conflict.

At the same time, it cannot simply ask everyone to slow down.

Every driver needs to maximize his own championship position.

That creates a delicate balance.

If Ogier wins, Toyota benefits.

If Katsuta wins, Toyota benefits.

If Pajari beats Evans, Toyota gains a potential championship leader.

If Evans extends his advantage, Toyota strengthens its position in the title fight.

The problem is that those outcomes do not necessarily benefit every Toyota driver equally.

That is where the internal battle becomes so fascinating.

Ogier vs Katsuta Could Become the Weekend’s Surprise Story

Before the rally began, most of the attention naturally focused on Evans and Pajari.

That makes Katsuta’s shakedown performance even more interesting.

He was not expected to dominate the opening test by such a large margin.

Yet he did exactly that.

Ogier was close enough to remain a serious threat, but the message was already delivered.

Katsuta has pace.

Now he needs to prove that the pace is real when the times begin to count.

Ogier, meanwhile, has the perfect opportunity to respond.

The defending Chile winner knows the roads.

He knows the conditions.

He knows how quickly a rally can change.

And he has already made it clear that his priority is a clean and controlled weekend.

If Ogier produces another victory, it would send a very different message to everyone watching his 2026 campaign.

If Katsuta beats him, the Japanese driver could suddenly become one of the most important names inside Toyota’s competitive hierarchy.

The Real Drama Is Just Beginning

The Thursday shakedown did not decide Rally Chile.

But it created the storyline.

Katsuta delivered the first warning.

Ogier remained close enough to keep the defending champion narrative alive.

Pajari continued to show the speed that has carried him to three consecutive victories.

Evans faces the enormous challenge of opening the road as championship leader.

And Hyundai is waiting for any Toyota mistake.

That is why Rally Chile could become much more than another round of the 2026 WRC season.

It could become a turning point.

Ogier wants to defend his victory.

Katsuta wants to prove that his shakedown dominance was not a coincidence.

Pajari wants to continue his incredible winning streak.

Evans wants to protect the championship lead.

And Toyota wants all of them fighting at the front without allowing its internal competition to become a weakness.

The first warning has already been issued.

Now the real question is whether Takamoto Katsuta can turn that warning into a genuine challenge to Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans and the rest of Toyota’s championship contenders.

Rally Chile has only just begun.

And Toyota’s internal battle may be about to become impossible to ignore.